I have been having some fun using our new LightWave application. Having the ability to use the Wizetrade charts together with price charts is very powerful. It allows us to see things we might have missed using one alone. You notice in this screen shot that CAL is moving up in an ascending channel on the daily chart. By drawing the upper and lower lines of the channel, you can see that CAL is currently trading near the top of the channel. You will also notice that the 2 prior reversals were both greater than $6.00 each. Although CAL has a fairly strong green up trend, I think the reward far outweighs the risk in this trade. Obviously you need to determine is a trade like this fits into your plan and your risk tolerance. It would definitely be worth keeping this one on your radar, waiting for the reversal!!
Kipp
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen a nice move up for the past 6 days in a row with a breakout above the 52 week high the past 2 days! Although the trends have remained fairly strong through this "V bottom" recovery, we have seen the Dow and the S&P 500 stuck within a tight range for the past month. Investors have been looking for a big breakout or break down from this channel! Typically when you get a breakout, it occurs on heavy volume. At this point I am not seeing much conviction to this move. Plus, you have many big Wall Street traders on vacation this week. I know it’s easy to get excited when you see the markets moving, but I would remain cautious until we are through the first week of the New Year. At this point, even though we have technically “broken out” of the channel, I am not calling this a “breakout” just yet.
It's funny how the stock market works. Just last week the entire world was in panic mode over the news that Dubai World was unable to pay their debt and was needing an extension from their creditors. Just a few days later the Dow is hitting 2009 highs and everyone thinks all is well. How is this possible? We still have 10% unemployment. We are still seeing record foreclosures. Banks are still failing and our national debt continues to rise! Is this irrational exuberance or are we just plain crazy?
My guess is that we are experiencing the perfect storm right now. There are billions of dollars that have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for “the big pull back” to get back into the market. Many of those fund managers are realizing they have missed the boat and are buying on any dips. With the U.S. dollar and interest rates at the lowest levels in years, investors are looking for places to get better returns again. Toss in program trading that doesn't take economic factors into consideration and you have the perfect storm; a market that just doesn't want to stop.
Now, I am a realist and I know at some point we will see a shift in sentiment. In the mean time I will enjoy the ride and do my best to catch a piece of the pie!!
Kipp
After a 6 day rally and roughly a 500 point move, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally took a break today along with crude oil and gold. We saw the U.S. dollar gain some strength today as well. Many market technicians are watching the 1100 level on the S&P 500 as a key resistance point. Although we have broken that level twice in the past two days, the S&P 500 has failed to close above that level. We could see another pullback from here if 1100 is not broken. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 93.79 points, to close at 10,197.47. The S&P 500 lost 11.27 points, to close at 1087.24. The NASDAQ finished the day down 17.88 points to close at 2149.02.
Kipp
The Dow Jones Industrial Averaged closed at the highs of the day and at a 13-month high, breaking the 10,200 level with no problems today. A strong move up of over 100 points in the first 30 minutes of trading this morning was followed by a nice steady continuation throughout the rest of the trading day with the major indices pressing to their highs of the day going into the close. I guess it’s safe to say “rally on” for now! With the fresh crosses building on the mid term trends, we should see a continuation of this move for the coming weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 203.52 points, to close at 10,226.94. The S&P 500 gained 23.78 points, to close at 1093.08. The NASDAQ finished the day up 41.62 points to close at 2154.06.
Kipp
An 80 point pre-market drop for BIDU set the tone for the trading day today as investors continued to digest a mixed bag of economic and earnings data. Positive housing numbers were overshadowed by downbeat consumer confidence data that brought volatility back into the equities markets. The Dow zigzagged again today, frustrating many traders. The mid term trends of the major indices converted to red today, showing continued signs of weakness for stocks. The long term trends are all converging now. A few more negative trading sessions and we could see a full shift in trends for the major U.S. equities markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 14.21 points, to close at 9,882.17. The S&P 500 lost 3.54 points, to close at 1063.41. The NASDAQ finished the day down 25.76 points to close at 2116.09.
The Wizetrade Alerts equities chat room saw profits coming from BIDU, SGMS, HTZ, CE & AIG, just to name a few stocks! Notable trades included a move of over $1.00 or more than 7% on SGMS and a $0.51 or nearly 2% move on CE. To get involved in the alerts, go to: www.wizetradealerts.com
Kipp
Is it me or does it feel like equities traders are in a
battle over Dow 10,000? After yesterdays end of the day sell-off
and the follow-through this morning, it was starting to look like the bears were
going to win. Not so fast!! The bulls fought back
with a vengeance with the Dow rallying back over 180 points from the lows of
this morning to the afternoon highs, closing about 25 points from the high of
the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 131.95 points, to
close at 10,081.31. The S&P 500 gained 11.51 points, to close at 1092.91.
The NASDAQ finished the day up 14.56 points to close at 2165.29.
With positive earnings for AMZN, COF and AXP after hours
today, we might see a continuation move tomorrow for equities.
September 23rd, 2009
Kipp
As I reviewed my trades today I noticed something that is vitally important to the success of any trader; good money management! By no means do I claim to be the perfect trader. I make mistakes and I take losses. That is a part of trading that we must all accept. Anyone that claims that they never take a loss is lying! What sets the successful traders apart from the rest of the crowd is how they manage their money. The funny thing is that you don’t even have to be 50% accurate to have a good day. Don’t get me wrong, I would much rather have one of those 70% days, but that just doesn’t always happen.
Today I had 10 active trades with 4 winners and 6 losers. You would assume that with a day like that I would have lost money, but I didn’t. As a matter of fact I achieved a 1.25% gain on my trading account today. How is that possible with only a 40% success rate? It’s called good money management. By this I mean that I cut my losers quick and I let my winners run. My biggest gainer netted over a 2% return and my biggest loser was less than 1%. My average gain today was 1.1% and my average loss was ½ %. By following good money management I was able to achieve a profitable trading day, even with less than 50% accuracy!!
September 16th, 2009
Kipp
If you look at the short term and mid term trend of the major indices, it looks like the markets just broke out. Many technical traders were looking for the S&P 500 to break 2050. Well, guess what happened today? The S&P closed 18 points above that level. Now, if you look at the long term trend of $DJI you will notice an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This is the same pattern that I referred to in a blog post back on June 22, 2009 when the Dow was at 8339. As Blake Morrow mentioned today on WTV today during Lunch Money, bear market rallies tend to reverse once everyone has gone long. Stay nimble and be ready for anything! The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 108.30 points, to close at 9791.71. The S&P 500 gained 16.13 points, to close at 1068.76. The NASDAQ finished the day up 30.51 points to close at 2133.15.
Kipp
The Dow zigzagged all day, moving up and down within a 97 point range, ultimately ending the day just about where it started. A sell off at the open was quickly followed by nearly a 100 point rally after the monthly new home sales figures were released. As investors absorbed the monthly new home sales data the markets shifted direction again and pulled back about 70 points from the high of the day. The Dow spent the rest of the day trading within a narrow range. When reviewing the 30 minute interval of the major stock indices you will notice a wedge formation building. The longer and tighter the band gets, the bigger the move that usually follows! Are we consolidating before the next move higher or are investors starting to peal off profits in anticipation of a pull back? Only time will tell! The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 4.23 points, to close at 9543.52. The S&P 500 gained 0.12 points, to close at 1028.12. The NASDAQ finished the day up 0.20 points to close at 2024.43.
