If you look at the 130 minute interval of $DJI, you will notice that the Dow is consolidating right now. It has been range bound for the past 3 trading sessions. More importantly you if you look at the low from today and Friday you will see that we have now bounced off of 9007 twice. Both times the Dow has rebounded over 90 points from that low. This is a sign of resiliency in the markets and could be a sign that the major indices are going to continue to press higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down 11.79 points, to close at 9096.72. The S&P 500 lost 2.56 points, to close at 979.62. The NASDAQ finished the day up 7.62 points to close at 1975.51.
Kipp
We broke 9000 yesterday, not with a vengeance but we broke it none the less. Not a bad accomplishment in 8 months time. The last time the Dow was at this level was back at the beginning of January of this year. If you look at the long term chart on the Dow you can see a cup and handle shape forming. So this is what I am thinking we might see after all the earnings news comes out…. 1) We need to see a pullback after this recent rally. If you look at the mid term (weekly) trend on the Diamonds (DIA) you will see that the past trends ran up for about 2 weeks and then pulls back for a couple of weeks. 2) If the trend stays true we may see the market pullback over the next several weeks. That’s just following the trend or cycles of the market.
A pullback at this level is ok; we’ve had a nice run over the past 4 months after reversing off the lows set earlier this year. Remember the market moves in cycles and they usually last 3 to 4 months, 3 to 4 weeks, 3 to 4 days. Now the last two weeks is an exception to the rule, we have pretty much rallied for the last 10 trading days. That doesn’t happen very often, but when it does it makes for some great trading. When the market is trending people are making money and life is good for the moment. So enjoy the run we have had and protect your profits incase we see the market sell off over the next several weeks.
I am on vacation for the next week, so happy trading and talk to you soon.
We are in the middle of another earnings week and the market has been holding up pretty strong this week. We were down most of the morning yesterday, but by about noon we came storming back off the day lows and closed in the positive for the day. This morning we are trading sideways for the most part flip flopping back and forth between negative and positive. We are now 8 days into this rally with the Dow moving over 850 points since last Monday and it doesn’t look like its going to stop anytime soon….one would think. Look for the market to pull back, the trend can’t last forever and we will see some profit taking coming soon. This is a necessary evil before the market can move higher. You also have to remember we are up against a psychological resistance level that we have been testing for the last several weeks. Remember to keep your eyes on the charts and have a solid trading plan to protect your recent gains in the middle of this bull rally.
We have another big week of earnings with ETN, HAL and PETS reporting before the bell today and TXN, PCR and BSX reporting after the close of business today. ETN is having a big day today up over 7.50% to $48.46 up $3.52, PETS up 2.50% up .40 cents at $17.04 and HAL up almost 3% trading up .62 cents at $22.00 even. As I am writing this the Dow is up about thee quarters of a percent trading up 58 points at 8801 and the NASDAQ is up about the same percent trading up 12.83 at 1899.40. The market has been in rally mode since last Monday 7/13/09 moving up about 700 points in that time. If you blinked you may have missed it. With all of the write offs the last couple of quarters, we are now seeing companies making money. Some are posting big gains like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Google (GOOG) and others not so good results but doing better than analyst had expected. So it’s going to be a busy week with the financials reporting earnings all week long, remember to do your homework, pay attention to who is reporting earnings this week and trade your plan.
Talk about earning being priced in, GS knocked it out the ball park this morning announcing earning before the bell but the stock didn’t do anything. With that being said GS has had two great days before earning with 3 upgrades and making about a 15 point move from bottom to top over the last couple of days. So when I say earning has been priced in….well there you have it. Right now the stock is flat up about $.31 after being down about $.40, its just really going back a forth with the Dow up about 8 points. I was hoping to see some explosive moves this morning, but this just goes to show, no matter what you have seen before and no matter what you may think will happen, the market will do what the market does. All you can do is sit back and take what you can get and hope you have a plan that constantly makes you money and keeps you on the right side of the trade. Intel and Yum brands report after the bell this afternoon so keep your eyes on those two stocks throughout the day, you may pick up a little action intra day, but I don’t think I would hold through earnings. Both stocks aren’t big movers but they have heavy volume and tight spreads for active trading.
I was writing this blog earlier in the morning and reflecting on how the market had sold off after watching the Dow futures pointing higher before the bell. Then the bell rang and we immediately sold off within the first half hour. By the end of the first hour of trading the market started to move off lows and from there it looked like the rally wasn’t going to stop. We have been trading off the $83.00 level all morning on the Diamonds (DIA), also GS has earnings before the bell tomorrow, it was up graded twice on Friday and once again this morning. I think we will see a rally this afternoon into the close ahead of GS numbers in the morning, but if you look at the volume today on DIA its much lighter with 6.9 million shares traded with 2 hours left in the market. Some big expectations coming out on Goldman Sachs this quarter so it will be a very interesting morning tomorrow, we could be looking at it as either a popper or dropper. So keep that on your radar.
See you in the morning on the Opening Bell.
Well we got the late afternoon rally we talked about yesterday but no follow through to this morning. The futures pointed lower before the bell and ever since the bell rang the market hasn’t seen green at all today. I was following Kellogg (K) yesterday going into the close, it had a fresh cross on the short term chart and that momentum did follow through today for a swing trade. Kellogg closed yesterday at $47.81 and hit a morning high of $48.43 with the charts still looking strong to the upside right now. There are some nice cycles on the short term chart of Kellogg and I am sure it will be on my radar list for the next couple of days looking for a pull back.
The market has rallied off the morning lows and now we are sitting in the green on the DOW. The NASDQ is still slightly negative and the DOW is up about 20 points with a little under an hour left in the trading day. Even with this little rally I am seeing some of my minute lights turn red with some profit taking this afternoon. I am red up to my 65 minute light and the 130 is flickering back and forth green to red. So that’s telling me I have no angle and separation and that the trends are weak. I guess we will see if we can pick up some steam here in the next 45 minutes and push this market higher and end in the green for the day.
