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Archive for January, 2009

Rally…What rally?

January 29th, 2009 Karl Haas Comments off

Yesterday we had a great day in the market, today not so great. Right now we are trading within a 1000 pont range on the mid term chart on the DIAMONDS (DIA). The short term we are in about a 400 to 500 point range bouncing around. Dont let two or three days of an uptrend fool you. I am actually glad we are selling off today, this is a chance for us to move higher if we do. After 3 days of moving up, a pull back is healthy, more than that its needed. Friday and Monday will be the test to see if we can break out of these current tops around 8400 or will we test the lows around 7900. Looking at the short term chart on the Dow the up trend was created on lower volume, that tells me everyone isnt sold on this up move yet. We need to see volume pick up and push the market higher, will it happen is the question. Some say we wont see a reversal in the market until we start to see the commodities market move higher, It all really does come back to commodities in the end. Look at the big picture and dont get sucked into a suckers rally.
Happy Trading.

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Why mice get eaten

January 28th, 2009 Don Folkerth Comments off

The cat is a very smart animal.  He retires out of sight & is very quiet until the mice forget about him.  Then wham he strikes & they are lunch.  The market is very cat like at times.

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Selling Covered Calls with UYG and URE

January 20th, 2009 Kipp Comments off

With many stocks trading not only at 52 week lows, but at or near historic lows, an interesting opportunity is presenting itself in the market.  What most stock brokers won't tell you is that in addition to owning shares of a stock, you can also collect monthly income on those shares of stock.

 

Collecting “income” or “rent” on shares of stock as it is called is known as writing covered calls.  The easiest way I can explain this is that you are selling someone the right, but not the obligation, to purchase your shares of stock at a certain price within a certain period of time.  For this right you will collect a premium.  That premium becomes your “income” or “rent” collected on those shares of stock.  There are 2 components that go into the price of an option; time value and intrinsic value.  The longer the time until the option expires, the higher the time value.  The more “in the money” the option is, the more it will cost. 

 

Options can be sold for the current month, the next month or several months or years out in time.  The current month or “front month” options have the least amount of time value associated with them.  Options that are sold with a year or more of time until expiration have the most amount of time value associated with them. These are also known as LEAP options (Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities).  Equity options always expire on the 3rd Friday of their expiration month.  If the price of the stock is lower (out of the money) than the strike price of the option that you sold by the expiration date, you get to keep the premium and your shares of stock.  All “out of the money” options expire worthless if they have not become “in the money” by their expiration date.  If the price of the stock is higher (in the money) than the strike price of the option that you sold by expiration, you keep the premium and sell your shares at the strike price.

 

Options can be sold “at the money”, “in the money” or “out of the money”.  If you sell someone an “at the money” option, it means that you are selling someone the right to buy your shares of stock at or near the current value of the stock (ex. stock is trading at $34.95 and you sell the $35 call option).  Selling an “in the money” option means you are selling someone the right to buy your shares of stock for less than its current value (ex. stock is trading at $37 and you sell the $35 call option; $2 in the money or $2 of intrinsic value).  Selling an “out of the money” option means you are selling someone the right to buy your shares of stock for more than its current value (ex. stock is trading at $33 and you sell the $35 call option).  Some traders buy “out of the money” options in anticipation that the stock price will appreciate in value greater than the strike price they are buying.  Options are sold at strike increments of $1.00, $2.50, $5.00 or $10.00, depending upon the price of the underlying equity.

 

Selling covered calls does require that you request Level 1 options trading permission with your broker.  Many investors trade options because of the leverage and the fact that options can produce higher percentage returns as compared to trading stocks. 

 

Now you are probably wondering why I just gave this long explanation about options?  The reason is that there are some stocks that have been beaten down in price to the point that a unique opportunity is presenting itself in the market.  What if you could buy a stock and over a period of a few years or less you could sell enough covered calls against those shares to ultimately bring your cost basis to zero?  This opportunity is happening right now. 

 

I must disclose that this should be considered VERY risky and speculative in nature since most of these stocks may have strong red trends.  Some of you may have heard me talk about doing this with Ford (stock symbol F).  I purchased shares of stock in F several months ago and have been selling covered calls against my shares almost every month since then.  The idea is that over the next few years I would sell covered calls each month, ultimately bringing my total cost basis to zero.  Let's say I owned 1000 shares of F for $2.50 and each month I managed to bring in $0.10 by selling the front month call option.  In 25 months I would have collected $2.50 in premiums, bringing my cost basis to zero.  At this point I could stop selling calls and just hold the stock in anticipation that one day it is trading around $15 or $20 and I then sell for a huge profit.  Or, I could continue to sell options against my shares, bringing in a little bit of income each month. 

 

To me this all makes total sense.  I can buy a stock and then one day I could own it for free.  The risk for me is two-fold.  The biggest risk is that F could file for bankruptcy, ultimately making my shares of stock worthless or the price drops to pennies a share and I am unable to sell call options.  That is a risk I am willing to take.  I would think that the Ford family has a lot more to lose than I do and won't let this happen.  The other risk is that I could sell an option too close to the current stock price or the stock price jumps and my shares get called away from me before I want them to. If it was looking like you were going to get your shares called away you could buy back the options you sold, but you would pay more to buy them back than what you originally sold them for.  That is the risk of selling options. 

 

I have been stalking a couple of stocks that I think are setting themselves up for this strategy.  They are URE and UYG.  Both of these stocks are ProShares ETF's (exchange traded funds).  UYG is an Ultra Financials ETF and URE is an Ultra Real Estate ETF.  Think of them like a mutual fund that trades like a stock.  Two years ago UYG was trading at over $70 a share.  Today it closed at $2.73 a share, its lowest level ever.  What is important to understand is that this ETF is comprised of financial related stocks.  The top 10 holdings in the fund include JPM, WFC, BAC, USB, GS, BK, TRV, V, C and AFL.  The good news is that unless every stock in this fund goes bankrupt, UYG could not go to zero.  The bad news is that many of these stocks could still go much lower, thus bringing down the price of UYG.  Based on today’s close, had I bought UYG right before the close for $2.75 and immediately turned around and sold the Feb. '09 $4 “out of the money” call option, I could have brought in $0.25/share of income.  Immediately I would have reduced my cost basis by $0.25 to $2.50.  Now, if I could do this every month for the next 10-12 months without getting my shares called out I could own UYG with a $0.00 cost basis. 

 

The other ProShares ETF that I have been stalking is URE.  It is an Ultra Real Estate ETF.  The top 10 holdings include SPG, PSA, NLY, VNO, EQR, HCP, BXP, PCL, AVB, and VTR.  URE closed today at $3.98 a share and it has been as low as $3.07 recently.  Today I could have bought the stock and turned around and sold the Feb. '09 $6 “out of the money” call option for $.20/share.  Obviously since URE is a $4 stock it would take a bit longer to bring my cost basis down to zero.  I feel that my biggest risk is that I sell a call and then the stock jumps up enough in price that I get my shares called away.  Had I bought the stock for $4/share, sold the $6 call option for $0.20 and got my shares called away for $6/share, I would have still earned 57% on my trade ($4.00 purchase price minus $0.20 for selling covered calls equals $3.80 cost basis; $6 sales prices divided by $3.80 cost basis equals 57% return). 

 

There are not many opportunities that show up like this in the market.  This strategy and the risks associated with it are not for everyone.  If you decide to trade this strategy or a similar strategy, please make sure you fully understand all of the nuances associated with writing covered calls as well as trading counter trend.  To make big rewards sometimes you have to take big risks.  Only you can decide if it is for YOU!!!

 

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Bullish in 09

January 20th, 2009 Karl Haas Comments off

Hearing a lot of people talking about being bulllish in "09". Now that we are 19 days into the new year and the market testing the lows of 2008... Its not looking so good. But it is early to be calling "09" the next bull market. Already in the first 19 days of the new year we have continued to see more lay offs from major companies, bad earnings after bad earnings and it doesnt look like it is going to stop soon. Some great companies have been cut in half if not more than half in value. This would be called bottom fishing and it is a great strategy, but with the market the way it is right now, we may not have seen bottom. If you are a buy and hold type investor, be patient and remember cash is a position.

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Next Week?

January 16th, 2009 Don Folkerth Comments off

Obama gets crowned next week & what will happen?  Good question.  Well there is little economic news next week.  There will be earnings & the market will try to spin them to the positive as much as possible.  Will the change of power & the spin doctors be enough to push the market up next week?  Might be possible & what happens the following week maybe reality?  Think we might get an opportunity to clean up to the downside?

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DJIA bottom is still holding up!

January 14th, 2009 Kipp Comments off

As you recall, in my blog from December 5th titled "The bottom is in!! (at least for now)" I reviewed the head and shoulders pattern that was building on the Dow Jones Industrial Average mid term chart ($INDU).  Nearly a month and a half later, the pattern continues to follow through.  Based on the chart pattern formation, I had estimated that we would rally through the end of the year and then begin to sell off until after President-elect Obama's inauguration.  My assumptions so far have been fairly accurate with the exception that we rallied into the first week of this new year and then our sell-off ensued.  Although we never reached the 9653 high from the end of October, we did manage to get as high as 9088 on January 6, 2009.  We have also yet to test the 7882 lows of early October, 2008.  Today we hit an intra-day low of 8140, which brought us very close to the 8143 low of late October, 2008.  The 8140's level has now been a weekly low 3 times over the past 10 weeks. If the Dow holds here, we could see some level of a short term move higher. After 6 down days in a row and 800 points later, I think we would all like to see that happen.  My guess is that we still might test the 7880's level prior to Obama's inauguration on January 20, 2009.  After that, rally on?  Continue to trust your charts and follow your trading plans. 

 

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Will the real market stand up.

January 5th, 2009 Don Folkerth Comments off

Remember that we have a large amount of economic data coming out this week plus earnings season will start next week. The investors are going to have a whole bunch of information to overreact with.  Keep your powder dry & your head low until this settles out. 

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